Kristi vs. Stephanie … no, not that one

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It is apparently Kristi Noem’s destiny to run against Stephanie again this year.

But not Herseth Sandlin, an incumbent congresswoman with $2 million to spend, a statewide reputation and the backing of hundreds of thousands of voters. She is on the sidelines this year.

Try Stephanie Strong, a 46-year-old Rapid City woman who has never sought office before, declined to reveal how much money she has for the campaign when I spoke with her Thursday, and has almost no name recognition.

Strong is collecting names on petitions, and if she turns in 1,955 valid signatures, she will be on the Republican ballot June 5. She said Noem has become part of the problem and not the solution.

Strong told me the problem is when politicians go to Washington and “disappear” instead of truly representing the voters who sent them there.

It sounds a lot like what Noem alleged in 2010 that SHS had done.

I wonder when we will hear Noem blasted for having voted with Nancy Pelosi, a charge Noem hung on Herseth Sandlin all during the 2010 race.  I am sure there were many times Noem cast a ballot on the same side of a non-controversial issue as Pelosi, the liberal San Francisco Democrat.

Noem’s mouthpiece, Josh Shields, said his boss is ready to run on her record. Strong said she wants debates; we will see if they happen. One thing’s for sure: Noem will have plenty of money.

I tried to ask South Dakota GOP chairman Tony Post about this, and to see if the party would remain neutral or endorse its incumbent. Strangely enough, Tony P. was unavailable for five hours Thursday. We will see what he has to say at some point or he may offer a tweet or two.

In some ways, this race may benefit Noem. She can position herself as a conservative, but not a representative of the far right like Strong, who plans to run to the right of Noem, a fairly difficult challenge.

Could it hurt her? Sure. Noem could stumble in a debate, Strong could raise an issue that the Democratic nominee could use in the fall, or Strong could ride the national wave against incumbents and pull a major upset.

Unlikely? Sure, but that’s what the conventional wisdom was in 2010 when a popular incumbent who had won in landslide fashion in 2006 and 2006 took on a little-known state legislator from Castlewood.

Stace Nelson and the Republican rebels

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It may sound hard to believe, but there are people who don’t think the South Dakota Republican Party, and South Dakota state government, is truly conservative.

What’s even more interesting is that the people saying that are registered and practicing Republicans.

Like Stace Nelson. The Fulton state representative has been blasting his fellow GOPers for months now, along with fellow conservatives who feel the SD Republican Party is too moderate, too chummy with Democrats and state officials, too out of step with the mainstream of the party.

But Nelson is not the kind of guy who makes his point quietly. A 6-7, 300-pound, tough-talking, target-shooting former Marine (although Marines say there is no such thing), Nelson has been expelled from the legislative Republican caucus and his desk was shifted after it was reported he had talked harshly, if not physically threatened, a fellow Republican legislator this week.

Nelson has been battling the South Dakota GOP establishment for months and the fight heated up this week. Fellow legislator Lance Russell was also tossed out of the caucus, but he rarely attended the sessions anyway, we are told.

Nelson truly believes he represents the thoughts and views of most SD Republicans. He and his fellow conservatives feel Gov. Dennis Daugaard, Speaker of the House Val Rausch, R-Big Stone City, and other GOP powers are not fully representing the party.

After Nelson’s reported outburst, Highway Patrol troopers roamed the capitol Thursday, trying to keep things calm. Rausch was accompanied by a personal guard.

Are things out of hand in Pierre? Has Stace gone too far this time?
Will the GOP work to recruit a candidate to oppose him this fall? And will bulletproof vests and armed guards become common sights on the floor of South Dakota’s statehouse?

As you can see below, Nelson offered a long explanation of how he feels things unfolded. This has been simmering for months and has now come to a boil. There is surely more to come.

Daschle’s pension: $105,804

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A recent Bloomberg News report details the six-figure pensions that go to “almost 15,000 federal retirees, including former leaders of Congress, a university president and a banker.” These pensions come from a federal system that faces a $674.2 billion shortfall.

Deep in the story is this reference to our own former senator Tom Daschle:

Former lawmakers, including some who have become lobbyists or strategic consultants, also received six-figure pensions, according to the OPM database. They include former House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt ($106,512 for 28 years of work as a Missouri Democratic congressman); former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle ($105,804 for 33 years as a South Dakota Democratic lawmaker); former Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole ($144,432 for 40 years as a Kansas Republican lawmaker); and former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott ($110,352 after 39 years as a Republican lawmaker from Mississippi). Calls to the offices of Gephardt, Daschle, Dole and Lott weren’t returned.

Will it be Newt after all?

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In the end, can Newt actually win this? Yeah, maybe so, in this bizarro Republican contest.

It’s his turn at the top, but that has been a slippery place to be in the past six months. Michelle Bachmann rose and fell. Rick Perry had a second or two in the lead before he plummeted. Herman Cain was at the forefront for a few days.

Then, Mitt Romney was, once again, deemed inevitable. Now, maybe not, maybe not at all, as the Republican Party picks its nominee to take on President Obama.

Newt Gingrich has been written off more times than a business lunch, but he pops up again, cocky, combative and capable of getting tons of free media. His big win in the South Carolina primary was based on touting conservative views, bashing the media and dominating the debates.

While Romney has the money, the organization and the pure personal life, he is awkward on stage, has handled the questions about his income and taxes horribly — and he is a Mormon. To a lot of the Christian conservatives who dominate much of the GOP selection process, that is the gravest sin.

Rick Santorum (be careful when you Google him) won, or at least tied Romney, at the Iowa caucus, although the media proclaimed Romney the winner for two weeks while votes were still being counted and collected.

Mitt won the New Hampshire primary, as was expected, and for a time he was 2-0 and leading in South Carolina. But that is so last Wednesday.

Santorum was a distant third in South Carolina, but he’s hoping Gingrich self-destructs and he is the most viable conservative standing.

Ron Paul, the aged, cranky Texas libertarian, has a small but dedicated following. He has said he doesn’t expect to be the nominee, then changed his tune and said, sure, I can win. But probably not.

If Newt can somehow get Santorum to join him, to earn those conservative followers, perhaps he does somehow earn the GOP nomination. My head still says Mitt is still the man most likely, but I think the GOP heart and gut says Newt is their true love, despite his past failings.

If this battle continues long enough, perhaps South Dakota’s primary on June 5 will become a factor. Maybe the circus will come to town once again, as it did for the Democrats in 2008.

And maybe, just maybe, for the first time since 1952, the Republican convention will mean something other than a coronation. Perhaps another candidate will emerge and the fabled “brokered convention” will return from the dim days of long-past history. Did someone mention Jeb Bush?