Heidepriem: It’s a dead heat

After seeing so many polls showing Scott Heidepriem so far behind in the governor’s race, I’m naturally skeptical of this. But here it is, from a Heidepriem news release issued last night:

Heidepriem – Daugaard

In Statistical Dead Heat In

Independent Poll: 43 – 41

Sioux Falls – A new independent poll completed Thursday evening shows that in the South Dakota gubernatorial race Democrat Scott Heidepriem has pulled into a statistical dead heat against Republican Dennis Daugaard .

The three day track poll conducted by NB Polling, shows that Heidepriem has pulled to within 41-43 percent with 15 percent still undecided.   The two point margin is within the statistical margin of error meaning the race is a statistical dead heat.

The poll mirrors internal polls conducted by the Heidepriem campaign which have shown Heidepriem closing rapidly by converting undecided voters to his camp as well as peeling off “soft” Daugaard supporters.  It also comes on the heels of an overwhelming performance by Heidepriem in a statewide television debate Monday in which Heidepriem blistered Daugaard who comes across as unsure and uncomfortable in these joint appearances while Heidepriem scores big points with his vision, consistency and command of the issues.

“We are clearly peaking at the right time.  As people see our message, as people see the dramatic difference between Scott and our opponent and while people tire of the same old politics of entitlement in Pierre, they are moving into Scott’s column.  We are converting thousands of previously undecided voters to our camp while we continue to peel thousands of voters away from Mr. Daugaard.  We are positioning ourselves for a major upset on Tuesday,” Heidepriem campaign manager Steve Jarding said.

“It is very unfortunate that two major news organizations published poll numbers from a week old poll earlier in the week.  The numbers were old and wrong and they confused voters.  We cannot help that poor decision, but we are delighted that this new independent poll mirrors our own internal polling numbers,” Jarding said.

Daugaard has big lead, says poll

The KELO-Argus poll is just out and it shows a massive lead for Republican Dennis Daugaard over Democrat Scott Heidepriem.

While two polls with ties to the Democratic Party have been released in recent weeks that indicated the race was tightening, this poll is by the two largest media outlets in the state. It shows Daugaard leading 54-35 percent with 11 percent undecided.

Those numbers match other figures we have seen during the campaign from Rasmussen Reports, a poll with established Republican ties, as well as what the GOP camp says its tracking polls have indicated.

So is the race over? To see the poll, go to http://www.keloland.com/NewsDetail6162.cfm?Id=106366

On Monday, the KELO-Argus poll gave Kristi Noem a 45-43 percent lead over Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, while independent candidate B. Thomas Marking received 3 percent backing. The remaining 9 percent were undecided.

Here’s a link to that poll: http://www.keloland.com/news/campaign/NewsDetail8634.cfm?Id=106329

Republicans for Democrats

South Dakota Democrats have long relied on Republican voters.

It’s a reality in this state, where the GOP has maintained an edge in voter numbers almost every year since statehood. The Democrats have edged in front a time or two but the Republicans then quickly catch and pass their rivals.

George McGovern, Tom Daschle, Tim Johnson and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin have all counted on GOP votes to win. This week, SHS said she had the support of some prominent Republicans, including former legislator Casey Murschel and Frank Brost, the former chief of staff of former Gov. George S. Mickelson, in her race against state Rep. Kristi Noem.

What’s interesting about that is that Mickelson  defeated Herseth Sandlin’s father, Lars Herseth, in 1986. Now, Brost is backing the daughter of his late boss’s onetime rival.

There’s more about it and more on SHS as the campaign winds down at our latest story on the race at http://www.mitchellrepublic.com/event/article/id/46960/

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Scott Heidepriem also announced some Republican support this week, unveiling an endorsement from state Sen. Stan Adelstein of Rapid City.

Stan is a unique West River Republican. He’s pro-choice and moderate to liberal on any issues. But he’s also been a friend and ally of Gov. Mike Rounds.

Some Republicans have called Adelstein a RINO — a Republican In Name Only. He faced a challenge from within the party in 2006 and lost the GOP primary to Ellie Schwiesow, a conservative party activist.

After mulling a party switch, Adelstein endorsed Democrat Tom Katus and helped him win the Senate seat. Then, in 2008, Adelstein regained the GOP nomination and won a return to the Senate in a wild three-way race between himself, Katus and Schwiesow, who ran as an independent.

Now Stan is once again backing a Democratic candidate while still offering kind words for Republican candidate Dennis Daugaard.

To read more, check out http://www.scottheidepriem.com/2010/10/senator-stan-adelstein-today-announces-his-endorsement-of-scott-heidepriem-for-governor/

Are voter feeds illegal?

We published a story today about Democratic feeds and voter rallies on American Indian reservations. Click here for the story.

Today, the Republican Party followed up with this news release:

State GOP Calls for Full Investigation Into Voter Fraud

– Asks US Attorney and Attorney General to Investigate and Stop Illegal Voting

PIERRE – South Dakota Republican Party Chairman Bob Gray today called for a complete investigation of the recent reports that the South Dakota Democratic Party is offering ‘food for votes’ in several locations throughout South Dakota.

“Over 10 years ago, United States Attorney Karen Schreier and South Dakota Attorney General Mark Barnett told South Dakota Democratic Party officials that this practice is indeed illegal. While the candidates have changed, the law hasn’t,” Gray said.  “Stephanie Herseth Sandlin should know better.  In her desperation to hold onto her seat, she’s pulling out all the old tricks.”

Attorneys, on behalf of the South Dakota Republican Party, mailed letters today to States’ Attorneys in Shannon, Lyman, and Buffalo Counties; Attorney General Marty Jackley; and United States Attorney Brendan Johnson asking for an investigation into this food-for-votes scheme.

“The old practice of offering food or cash for people to vote must end,” Gray said.  “Every South Dakota adult has the right and responsibility to vote, but nobody ought to be paying or feeding anyone to do so.  South Dakotans deserve fair and honest elections that are free from corruption and vote buying.”

Heidepriem’s late comeback plans?

People love it in sports and movies. A sudden surprise at the end is always popular.

It doesn’t happen often in politics, especially in a time when opinions are sampled and weighed so ceaselessly by pollsters. But Democratic gubernatorial candidate Scott Heidepriem is focusing his energies on a late rush to allow him to win.

Heidepriem will air a 30-minute campaign commercial on Thursday, Oct. 7. He hopes this ad, which will air at 6:30 p.m. on all local channels, will reintroduce him to South Dakota voters.

Democratic lieutenant governor candidate Ben Arndt told me Friday he thinks his team will pick up votes in the final weeks and the Republican duo of Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard and state Sen. Matt Michels will lose support. At least that’s the Democrats’ hope.

Realistic? Do you see Scott as the new Harry S. Truman, rallying at the finish line for an upset win? Or does he join the line of other Democrats who couldn’t win the keys to the Governor’s Mansion?