Rounds v. Johnson

Just over a year ago, Mike Rounds told me he felt Tim Johnson, a Democratic senator, was a friend and a good man whom he had worked well with over the years.

Johnson spoke highly of Rounds as the Republican governor prepared to leave office at the end of 2010. Job well done, he said.

Such nice South Dakotans, working well together, crossing party lines for the good of the state, yadda, yadda yadda …

But now these two highly successful South Dakota politicians may butt heads in 2014. We’ll see how much buddy-buddy talk is exchanged then.

When Johnson suffered a severe brain bleed on Dec. 13, 2006, there was a great deal of speculation that Johnson might die or have to step down and Rounds, who was about to start his second term as governor, would have to name a replacement.

But the governor said he would have none of it. When I spoke with Rounds at the end of 2010, he said he ordered his staff not to even mention the possibility of replacing Johnson.

Johnson recovered, returned to the Senate and easily won a third term in 2008. Poor Joel Dykstra couldn’t attack Johnson without looking bad and didn’t garner much money or support. It was a non-contest.

Now Johnson again faces the question: Will he run for the Senate again? If he does, he may find Rounds waiting for him on Election Day.

The former governor told the Rapid City Journal’s Kevin Woster that he was seriously looking at a run for the Senate in 2014. I offered a historic look at these two political powerhouses in Monday’s Daily Republic.

Back in 2010, as he reviewed his career, Rounds told me he almost ran against Johnson in 2002. At the time, it appeared John Thune would run for governor and Rounds, an ambitious young state senator, set his sights on the U.S. Senate.

But Thune was persuaded by then-VP Dick Cheney and others to run for the Senate and Rounds, in an amazing contest, won a three-way GOP primary and wound up as governor.

Will Rounds run for the Senate this time? He may have a lot of company.

Will Kristi Noem run for the Senate as well, especially if she wins a second term in the House this year and is contemplating a move up in class?

Of course, Johnson, now 65, after more than 30 years in elective office and a quarter century in Washington, D.C., may decide to retire. He is still deeply impacted by the brain bleed, which left his speech slowed and slurred and his body greatly weakened.

While Johnson and his staff say he is completely capable of serving in the Senate, and he appears still quick-witted and on top of things. he may decide Rounds is a very formidable opponent at this stage of his life and decide to call it a career.

He also might want to clear the way for his son, U.S. Attorney Brendan Johnson, who is widely seen as a future senator, congressman, governor — something. And Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, who bowed out of the 2012 election recently, may want to run for the Senate as well.

But if Mike and Tim end up on the same ballot for the same office, it would be great contest to observe. Neither man has ever lost a race for office and both are rather proud of that fact.

If Johnson wins, he would become the most successful politician in South Dakota history, with five terms in the House and four in the Senate.

If Rounds would run and win, he would follow in the footsteps of the man he calls his role model, Peter Norbeck, who served in the Senate after two terms as governor.

Political observers have been saying for months that 2014 will be a fascinating year in South Dakota politics. Rounds’ announcement added fuel to that fire.

Tim, you’re up. Any more news for us?

Broken government

Is there no hope for compromise in Congress? Are the Republicans and Democrats so divided, so far apart, so bitterly opposed to working together that they cannot do business?

The failure of the not-so-super committee indicates the answer is yes. A months-long effort to strike a deal on spending cuts to reduce the deficit collapsed in recriminations and regret Monday.

David Gergen, an adviser to presidents Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Clinton, said this is a sign that Washington has “gone nuts.”

“It’s difficult to remember a Congress that has put the nation so much at risk in the service of ideology and to hold onto office. Partisans on both sides are grievously failing the country,” Gergen wrote in a CNN piece.

As he points out, there have been deep divides on issues and ideas in the past, but deals were made, progress continued and the country was not put at risk, nor was a shaky economy allowed to tremble to make partisan points.

South Dakota’s congressional delegation weighed in Monday afternoon. Rep. Kristi Noem and Sen. John Thune blamed the Democrats, with Noem also decrying the failure of the parties to work together. Sen. Tim Johnson said he was disappointed with the politics being played but he didn’t take a shot at the GOP.

Is there no hope? Has the political center collapsed and all that remains are two angry, foolish sides perched on mountains shouting at each other? Has Washington, in fact, gone nuts?

Johnson, Thune & Johnson: Did the space-time continuum fabric stretch a bit?

I saw both my past and my future as a South Dakota political reporter during an online streaming video Thursday.

The US Senate’s Indian Affairs Committee streams its committee hearings, and Thursday was a banner day for South Dakota. Sen. Tim Johnson, D-S.D., is a member of the committee, so he was there. US Attorney for SD Brendan Johnson (son of Tim) was testifying, so he was there. And then Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., came in just as the testimony was entering the “Wait, did he just say something important?” phase.

Preparing to run (if you ask me)

There on a streaming video a few inches square were the battle-worn senators who clashed so famously in 2002 and the rising star who is likely to wage a 2002-like battle of his own in the next election cycle or two.

I thought perhaps Thune might have a few pointed questions for the younger Johnson, since those two are likely to find themselves on opposite sides of the partisan divide on the campaign trail. (They’re unlikely to be direct competitors given that Thune won’t be up for re-election until 2016. But we lost the MDR’s crystal ball, so who knows? It would be like two sides of the same coin, 2 rising stars at different points in their trajectories.)

In any case, Thune directed his questions to other witnesses, so my reporter’s hopes for fireworks were dashed.

So here’s how my mind wandered during the committee meeting.

Brendan’s getting ready to run, all signs point to yes. I will be most surprised if he lets the next two election cycles pass without declaring his candidacy. The question is, will he run for the House or the Senate?

Would he take on Kristi Noem in her sophomore race while voters are in a mood to throw incumbents out?

Would he run to replace his dad in the Senate in the event of a retirement? Would voters accept such an arrangement? My gut – and nothing more – tells me that South Dakota’s electorate might see that as aiming a bit too high layered over an uneasiness about family entitlement.

I see a Senate run, even for an open seat, as more risky. He might very well face Mike Rounds in such a contest. Ask Mark Barnett and Steve Kirby how Rounds is to run against.

A challenge to Noem would be a bold move with high rewards in the event of victory. (Sure, this is unlikely because Tim Johnson staffer Matt Varilek is making lots of noise about running that race. But, really, if Brendan wanted this race, it would be his for the taking.)

We can’t forget Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, either. Should she decide she wants to run for a Senate seat in 2014, a Johnson-Herseth primary would be disastrous for SD Dems. Such a race is unlikely but not out of the question.

We can call this the silly season, where the political junkies are left to speculate and move the chess pieces around for fun. The upside is the realization that SD politics will remain some of the best entertainment around.

Pass the popcorn.

 

The race is on for 2012

Minnehaha County Commissioner Jeff Barth is serving milk and cookies as he kicks off his campaign for the Democratic nomination for the state’s lone House seat.

We know Rep. Kristi Noem, R-S.D., will be the Republican candidate and the odds-on favorite. The Democrats are starting the process to pick a candidate to take her on and are unsure if former congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin will run for her old job in 2012.

Barth told me Monday there was no special meaning to the treat, saying he thought it was just a nice thing to do. It’s a far cry from the old days, when politicians and their supporters sipped drinks with a stronger kick.

He will tour the state this week and will be in Mitchell Wednesday to press the flesh during Corn Palace Festival week.

Barth is counting on his experience in office in the state’s most-populated county and his proven ability to win, including in 2010, not exactly a strong year for Democrats.

Here’s the Barth story, with a look at his life and career: http://www.mitchellrepublic.com/event/article/id/56126/

Meanwhile, Matt Varilek, a staffer for Sen. Tim Johnson, D-S.D., is taking a long look at the race. He and his supporters are using a lot of new media tools to spread the word.

Varilek has yet to formally announce for the House. When I spoke with him Monday afternoon, he said he was strongly considering entering the race.

Later, he called back to say he had responded to the Facebook campaign to get him into the race. It has more than 500 “likes” and here’s a link: https://www.facebook.com/draftmatt

Varilek sure sounds like a candidate in this YouTube video he posted last night: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLHXtMHAMY4

Meanwhile, SHS, now a lawyer and lobbyist in D.C., is taking some time with family in Brookings. Will she run? Is a presidential election a good or bad year for a Democrat to run in South Dakota?

Would she serve ice cream and cake at her announcement? Will Varilek offer Rice Krispie bars? Stay tuned.

Here’s that Tim Johnson audio

I didn’t have to look far for audio from Sen. Tim Johnson’s conference call with reporters earlier this week. (See previous post.) The one where he came within a word or two of endorsing his staffer, Matt Varilek of Sioux Falls, for South Dakota’s lone US House seat.

A sound recording of the event was hiding out on Sen. Johnson’s own website, and his press guy Jeff Gohringer was nice enough to point it out to me right away. It’s just taken me this long to post the link. My apologies, but you can listen for yourself if you haven’t already.